18 January 2006

 

My big prediction round-up

In my first real post here I made a bold prediction that not only would Nintendgs outsell the Xbox 360, it would be the "it" item for the 2005 holiday [yeah, I said it] season. Here's how it's broken down.
  1. I sure was right on the numbers, in the US alone Nintendogs sold 1.465 million copies between when it was released and the end of December. The Xbox 360 sold 607,000 units between launch and Dec. 31 in the US. Of course I may be right for the wrong reasons, as supply problems are causing major headaches for Microsoft but I'll take 'em where I can get 'em. Sadly I don't have any numbers for the total number of 360 games sold but I do know that only 2 of them broke 100,000 units in December. And they're both by EA.

  2. I was dead wrong about the 360 not being the hot holiday item. Wrongity wrong wrong wrong. Perhaps I overestimated the decision-making ability of the zombielike holiday shopper. Perhaps I overestimated how price-sensitive the American consumer is. Either way though my Microsoft still not having systems available they're quickly extinguishing the "pent-up demand" [not my words] for the system. But hey, there's hardly any new games coming out right now anyway.

  3. My comments about Nintendo's "get the non-gamers" strategy have been accurate. Well, they have in Japan where the DS, along with "non-games" [oh lord do I hate that term, more on that later] like Nintendogs, Brain Training and Animal Crossing created a run on the DS that I couldn't have seen coming. We'll see if they can continue this with the Revolution.

So I really was only 1/3 right which is slightly worse than guessing at random. Fortunately there's no one reading this so my shame can remain hidden.

Comments:
Ho hoooo, hidden no longer! If it's any consolation, I too thought that the 360 price point was simply too high and that the marketing folks at Microsoft hadn't spun (or goosed or tweaked) the system enough to consumers to get them to really bite. Oops.
 
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